Monday, May 02, 2005

Ethanol and 'peak oil': an aside

Responding to one of my periodic tirades on ethanol, reader Roger Dennison recently wrote in to say:
Tom, the thing you don't mention in your blog, which will certainly impact agriculture in a big BIG way, is the inevitable onset of 'Peak Oil'. I must assume you know what I'm talking about. I am so certain about the future fuel supply crisis, that, when it comes, I want to be (A) living in a place that sells ethanol or E85, (or biodiesel) and (B), have a Flex-Fuel vehicle that will run on it. By that point, and it could happen sooner than later, the "glut" of ethanol will suddenly transform into a shortage.

I'm curious to know what you have to say on this matter.

Bitter Greens Journal responds
I'm familiar with "peak oil," the idea that humans have consumed crude oil so rapidly over the past 100 years that the world's deposits are severely diminished. The argument goes like this: All of the "easy" oil has been sucked out of the earth or will be soon; what's left will be expensive to extract, both becuase it's concentrated in politically unstable countries, and because it lies deeper under the earth's surface than the easy stuff. Thus oil production has peaked or will soon--and the world faces ever-tightening supplies of oil and ever higher prices at the gas pump.

The oil industry, and its champions within the White House, downplay the peak-oil scenario. Sure, they say, oil production will eventually peak, but not anytime soon; thus no need for serious conservation/alternative-energy efforts.

Yet I find the peak-oil argument generally persuasive, especially after having read Paul Roberts' bracing 2004 book The End of Oil. Anyone who thinks peak oil is a fringe theory should read that impeccably documented work. Note also that Richard Lugar and James Woolsey, respectively US senator and former CIA chief, essentially put forward a "peak oil" analysis in this 1999 essay in Foreign Affairs, that trumpet of establishment thinking.

Indeed, those two worthies were essentially arguing my critic Dennison's case: that ethanol provides a way out of an imminent energy crunch.

I disagree.

Studies about how much energy gain ethanol delivers conflict. The USDA, that long-time underwriter of ethanol production, recently came out with a study claiming that ethanol delivers a little more energy than it requires to produce.

Tad W. Patzek, a geoscientist at Berkeley, begs to differ. He claims that accounting for "the myriad energy inputs required by industrial agriculture, from the amount of fuel used to produce fertilizers and corn seeds to the transportation and wastewater disposal costs," ethanol consumes six units of energy to produce just one.

So USDA posits a marginal gain and a Berkeley scientist posits a significant loss. Either way, if petrol prices skyrocket under a peak oil model, how will we come up with the energy needed for mass-scale monocrop corn production?

Indeed, I find the idea that we can rely on industrial agriculture to fuel our 211-million-strong fleet of cars in the US fanciful, at best.

Richard Manning, in his Harper's 2004 essay The Oil We Eat, has this to say:
Ever since we ran out of arable land, food is oil. Every single calorie we eat is backed by at least a calorie of oil, more like ten. In 1940 the average farm in the United States produced 2.3 calories of food energy for every calorie of fossil energy it used. By 1974 (the last year in which anyone looked closely at this issue), that ratio was 1:1. And this understates the problem, because at the same time that there is more oil in our food there is less oil in our oil. A couple of generations ago we spent a lot less energy drilling, pumping, and distributing than we do now. In the 1940s we got about 100 barrels of oil back for every barrel of oil we spent getting it. Today each barrel invested in the process returns only ten, a calculation that no doubt fails to include the fuel burned by the Hummers and Blackhawks we use to maintain access to the oil in Iraq.


In short, an agricultural system that depends so heavily on fossil fuel represents a dubious option for replacing fossil fuel.

If Bitter Greens Journal ruled the world, the government would stop subsidizing industrial agriculture and ethanol production and start building a real train system. Keeping 211 million vehicles on the road, nearly one for every man, woman, and child in the US, may simply not be sustainable.

Amtrak's annual budget is about $1 billion a year. Corn farmers get at least that much in subsidies in a typical year, and the highways suck up many more times that.

33 Comments:

Blogger Steph said...

Here here! I am always glad to see another proponent of the railway system.

5/30/2005 11:41:00 AM  
Blogger American Lung Association of Minnesota said...

Bitter, green, and uninformed, I'm afraid.

Patzek is a Big Oil Apologist (crisis, what crisis? Drill ANWR!) living in an Ivory Tower fantasyland. Look at his C.V. -- he actually brags about his "friend of the oil industry" award. Look it up -- I did.

Let Roger know he can move to Minnesota, the E85 Capitol of North America, anytime. With 20 models of FFVs (flexible fuel vehicles) on sale now and more than 150 E85 pumps statewide (new stations opening every week), Minnesota is the place to be to use E85.

Who says so? The American Lung Association of Minnesota. Read more at www.CleanAirChoice.org

Ethanol isn't a miracle fuel. But it is cleaner burning than gasoline, and a good short-term step until practical, clean vehicles and/or fuel can be develped fully.

6/30/2005 08:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Dr. Pieter van Pelt said...

Hello Tom,

the last weeks I have read and analysed Patzek's paper he published together with David Pimentel in Natural Resources Research (vol. 14, No. 1, March 2005). I have checked his calculations on the energy surplus or deficit for the production of ethanol from corn. I ave also checked - as much as possible - the sources from which they obtained their data (mostly USDA eports and many other sources.
To top it off, I spent some afternoons talking with local corn farmers in my region (I live in the south of Holland, and there are many corn farmers here; they often combine raising corn with raising pigs or cattle).
My basic conclusion on Ptzeks paper is : HE IS RIGHT.
The farming of corn is not the big problem; if the region has a favourable climate (good rainfall; good soil; nice summers; availability of local organic fertilizer etc.), corn production has a positive energy balance. And may be better than Patzeks (average) data show. But the production of fuel-grade ethanol from corn is another matter. The fermentation and especially the distillation process equire huge amounts of energy, which is usually derived from ossil fuels (gas, oil, coal). If this energy were derived from renewable sources (solar, wind), it would be different, but these forms of energy are still relatively scarce, also here in Europe.
So, if we have to 'burn'1,3 liters of oil or gas to obtain the equivalent of 1 liter of bio-fuel, we do not serve the environment, do not reduce CO2 emissions and do bad business. If peak oil arrives (some say in 2-5 years), we will have to buy ever more costly oil to produce ethanol. No subsidy in the world will be able to keep up with this upwards moving price level, and the whole system of bio-fuel will collaps under its own economic weight.
My advise: get out of this game while you can, look for other ways to conserve fuels (hybrid cars; hydrogen-fuell cells; renewable energies as wind and solar etc.).

Dr. Pieter van Pelt
retired chemist, ex-Philips Electronics
Best (near Eindhoven), Holland

8/07/2005 09:07:00 AM  
Anonymous pieter van pelt said...

I like to add another comment to the energy-balance dispute on ethanol. I also analysed the paper by Mr. Shapouri of the USDA (
http://www.ethanol.org/pdfs/
energy_balance_ethanol.pdf) and found out how he comes to a net energy balance for ethanol. One must first realise that in any chemical process where a material is transformed in something else, it is never a matter of simply converting A into B. In the corn-ethanol case, many things are needed to get corn from a field (energy for machines, fertilizers, herbicides etc; human labour; water/irrigation; sunlight etc.). After harvesting and transport to the ethanol factory, the transformation of corn into ethanol can take place. But besides ethanol, at least two other products are made: DDG (a dry organic mass that is usefull as cattle-fodder) and a stream of waste-water (that must be treated at an expense of energy and machinery).
What Mr. Shapouri does is to say, that part of the energy is spent to make DDG (which is true, of course) and this part of the energy that the whole cycle took is subtracted from the ethanol input. The more energy from the whole process you allocate to the DDG, the less it obviously took to make the ethanol.
This is a nice game of numbers that gives you a net energy as outcome for ethanol production. But in fact, it boils down to saying: ethanol is just a by-product and comes almost 'for free'. But looking at the price of ethanol (even after the 57 cent state subsidy is subtracted) you note that ethanol costs about $1,50 per liter, substantially more than a liter of gasoline from the refinery. Something is wrong here. On paper, ethanol production is not so energy intensive (making it look good for subsidising agencies) but at the check-out counter te full price for the energy spent to make the product appears on the bill!
I remain with my statement, that ethanol is not a 'green' replacement for oil and does not make us less dependent on oil.

8/08/2005 10:48:00 AM  
Blogger Tom Philpott said...

Dr. Van Pelt,
Thanks for these thorough and interesting responses.
Tom

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